Category Archives: climate change

DIY Climate Modeling

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On Monday, the media reported on a new study by the U.S. Geological Survey detailing the consequences of a winter ‘superstorm’ scenario that would strike the US West Coast and produce precipitation levels exceeding those experienced on average once only every 500 to 1,000 years. How bad is that? The model depicted a storm that could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. Climate scientists have long said that rising temperatures could increase the intensity of storms and a superstorm is not outside the realm of possibility.

At the same time, the media also reported this week that Russia’s deadly heat wave last summer (the worst in a 1,000 years according to the head of the Russia Meteorological Center) was driven primarily by a natural weather phenomenon, not man-made causes. A natural weather phenomenon killed nearly 11,000 people in Moscow, caused widespread wildfires, and reduced the country’s grain harvest by a third? Yes, according to scientists.

These two events indicate that we really don’t understand climate as well as we should. That’s where we come in to play.

Most are aware of the distributed computing project known as SETI@home, which is a scientific experiment that uses Internet-connected computers in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Everyday citizens participate by running a free program that downloads and analyzes radio telescope data on their home computer.

Climate modelers have gotten in on the game of using distributed computing with Climateprediction.net.

The scientists’ goal is to produce predictions of the Earth’s climate through year 2100. These predictions must be tested for accuracy, which can occur by using the ‘free time’ on home computers. Participants give up processing time on their computers when the machines are turned on, but not used to their full capacity.

Do It Yourself climate modelers can choose various scenarios to support. One such project is the Seasonal Attribution Project, which runs simulations to determine the extent to which the risk of extreme weather events is attributable to human-induced climate change. Specifically, the team examines the United Kingdom floods of Autumn  2000, the wettest on record since 1776. The region received roughly 19 inches of rain, or double the seasonal average. The models examine various scenarios both with and without various human-induced variables.

Climateprediction.net is one way that we can all lend a hand to better understand the consequences of climate change. Download the necessary software and start analyzing climate data in your (computer’s) free time.

Desalination and the Dodo bird

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For a country with only 1.2 million residents and a record rainfall of almost three meters per year, you wouldn’t think that the tiny island nation of the Republic of Mauritius would have a water supply problem. But as of January 2011, local reservoirs are only at roughly 30-40 percent of capacity and the Minister of Energy and Public Utilities is pushing legislation to encourage local hotels to install desalination units saying that such technology is a reliable alternative to treating fresh water as a result of energy-efficient technologies.

Since 2005, all new hotels in Mauritius are required to accommodate desalination as well as recycling and reuse of water. Some hotels are currently desalinating 800 cubic meters of water per day or roughly 200,000 gallons. In the US, hotels use an average of 209 gallons of water each day per occupied room.

Due to the water crisis, the government has passed regulations restricting the use of potable water to wash vehicles, pavements, buildings, and to water lawns.  Violators could be subject to fines of Rs 200,000 (US$6,800) and up to two years in prison.

Despite plans for two new large water storage projects, the opposition party is also calling for increased desalination noting that the new water sources will not be operational for 10 years. The island nation, located 560 miles east of Madagascar in the middle of the Indian Ocean, has the dubious honor of being the former home of the Dodo bird. Perhaps the descendants of those that drove the Dodo to extinction can learn from the lessons of a changing environment.

Electric Power Industry Facing Water-Use Disclosure Risk

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The U.S. electric power industry withdraws an estimated 136 billion gallons of freshwater per day for generating and then cooling the steam that drives electric turbines. That’s roughly 41 percent of the country’s total withdrawals according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Recent guidance from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission indicating that “changes in the availability or quality of water…can have material effects on companies,” and therefore must be disclosed, points to a future where the electric power industry will be forced to more fully disclose their water risks, which appear significant.

A new report from Ceres, a national coalition of investors, environmental groups, and other public interest organizations, provides a comprehensive assessment and ranking of water disclosure practices of 100 publicly-traded companies. The report examines eight key sectors exposed to water related risks:  beverage, chemicals, electric power, food, homebuilding, mining, oil and gas, and semiconductors.

Murky Waters: Corporate Reporting on Water Risk was issued in February 2010 and is available for download from the Ceres website. For the electric power industry, study authors highlight significant physical, regulatory, and litigation risks related to water.

  • Physical Risks: water scarcity, unpredictability of supply, amount/timing of flows for hydropower, and increased demand for carbon capture and storage.
  • Regulatory Risks: cooling water discharge temperature controls, denial of construction permits based on water availability, and wastewater discharge standards.
  • Litigation Risks: lawsuits over water withdrawals or inter-state water rights.

Ceres, with data support from Bloomberg and analytical support from UBS Limited, considered five key categories of disclosure: water accounting, risk assessment, direct operations, supply chain, and stakeholder engagement. Thirteen U.S.-based electric power companies were chosen on the basis of the size and water intensity of their generation assets. Companies included:

  • AES Corporation
  • American Electric Power
  • Constellation Energy
  • Dominion Resources
  • Duke Energy
  • Entergy
  • Exelon
  • Florida Power & Light Group
  • NRG Energy
  • PG&E
  • Pinnacle West/APS
  • Southern Company
  • Xcel Energy

Findings

The electric power sector showed weak water risk disclosure overall, with an average score of 19 out of 100. Pinnacle West/APS, an Arizona-based utility, achieved the highest level of disclosure in the sector with 38 points; Florida Power & Light  provided the most limited disclosure, receiving eight points.

1. Disclosure of Water Accounting Fewer than half (six out of 13) of the electric power companies reviewed provide data on water withdrawals.

2. Disclosure of Risk Assessment With the exception of NRG Energy, all the electric power companies surveyed disclose some level of physical risk related to water scarcity. All the companies report their exposure to water-related regulatory risks.

3. Disclosure of Direct Operations The electric power companies provide limited disclosure on water-related management systems and policies. Seven of the 13 companies report actions taken to reduce water withdrawals, with PG&E and Southern Company providing the most detailed disclosure. None of the companies disclose quantified targets to reduce contaminants in wastewater discharged from power plants.

4. Disclosure of Supply Chain Only one company – Entergy – provides information on collaboration with its non-fuel suppliers on water management. None of the companies disclose efforts to engage or assess fuel suppliers on water impacts or risks.

5. Disclosure of Stakeholder Engagement Eight out of the 13 electric power companies reviewed report engaging with stakeholders on water management.

The report concludes with several recommendations to the electric power sector:

  • Better inclusion of water risks in financial filings
  • More detailed risk assessments
  • Water accounting data that puts performance in context
  • Disclosure of management strategies and systems
  • Setting and disclosing reduction targets
  • Addressing water risks in the supply chain
  • Engaging critical stakeholders
  • Seizing opportunities to develop water-related product strategies

While carbon emissions have dominated the environmental disclosures in the recent past, water use, availability, and associated risks are likely to quickly gain center stage.

A Laundry List of Water Conservation Ideas

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For the last seven years, Building Design and Construction magazine has provided annual updates on the green building movement. They’ve discussed the green building movement (2003), sustainability (2004), life cycle assessment (2005), green building bottom line (2006), industry perspectives (2007), climate change (2008), and now water performance (2009).

In early November, prior to the 28,000-person-attended GreenBuild conference in Phoenix, BD&C issued their 2009 white paper, which focuses on the role of water in sustainable design and construction. The editors provide a set of 21 detailed recommendations for consideration by building teams, home builders, developers, and other green building stakeholders.

The paper found that:

1. Virtually every region of the U.S. and parts of most states likely will experience water shortages in the next 10 years. Some are already feeling the effects of water scarcity.

2. More water is consumed outside buildings and homes—for landscape irrigation and cooling towers—than is used inside for toilets, faucets, showers, and the like.

3. Somewhere between 15% and 20% of the nation’s water never makes it from the filtration plant to the property line, thanks to our decaying infrastructure.

4. Manufacturers have significantly improved the efficiency of plumbing, irrigation, and water reuse technologies in recent years, but long-term conservation also depends heavily on how people use these products.

5. There may be limits to water efficiency. In some cases, saving water can lead to “unintended consequences,” such as pipeline drainage problems, health and safety concerns, and negative impacts on the environment.

6. Improvements in water performance can have a bonus: reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

7. The reuse of water may be “the next big thing” in water conservation, efficiency, and performance.

Concerning recommendations, here’s what the editors suggest…

What Building Teams Can Do

1. Design buildings to reduce cooling load.

2. Take advantage of cooling tower management technology.

3. Consider alternatives to cooling towers.

4. Design water and drain lines for optimal performance.

5. Get the landscape architect involved early in the job.

6. Become the expert on water rebates and incentives.

What Building Owners Can Do

7. Engage in water management planning.

8. Conduct water audits.

What Governments Can Do

9. Harmonize plumbing codes for water

10. Consider water-use labeling on sale or transfer.

11. Use the International Association of Plumbing and Mechanical Officials (IAPMO) green plumbing supplement as a guide.

12. Address the infrastructure problem.

What Water Utilities Can Do

13. Be more creative in pricing water.

14. Provide incentives for water audits.

15. Implement metering innovations.

What Manufacturers Can Do

16. Support research on water performance issues.

17. Support the growth of green plumbing jobs.

What Community Colleges Can Do

18. Create a “pre-apprentice water auditor” certification program.

What the Public Can Do

19. Use less turfgrass, more native landscaping.

20. Irrigate sensibly.

21. Understand the energy cost of water.

On this last recommendation, the general public needs to understand the hidden costs of water. Water requires energy to deliver it to the end user. Water processing and distribution, coupled with sewage treatment, consumes about 4 percent of electricity in the US. In California, water transport and treatment accounts for 19% of electricity used in the state.

What are your strategies for saving water?

Trees Succumbing to Climate Change

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Last month, the media reported extensively on the die-off of aspen trees in the West linked to climate change. Called sudden aspen decline or SAD, the phenomenon is characterized by the death of mature over story with an absence of subsequent regeneration. Open stands at lower elevations, with south to west aspects, are more vulnerable.

The disease is responsible for the die-off of 553,000 acres (17%) of aspen in Colorado alone. Aspen stands in southwestern Colorado, northern Arizona, southern Utah and Wyoming, and southeastern Idaho are primarily affected.

Aspen is the most widely distributed tree species in North America and a vital component of almost every forest ecosystem in western North America. Drought is the principal suspect influencing the die-offs. The lack of water only weakens the trees. Secondary pathogens or insects such as such as canker fungi, wood borers, bark beetles, and clear wing moths actually kill the trees.

The Forest Service is hoping that timber harvesting and prescribed burns will lead to greater regeneration of the aspens. The following photos help document the problem.

Will Fleet Electrification Save the Postal Service?

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With a projected net loss of $7 billion for fiscal year 2009, the Postal Service needs to find ways to cut costs. While the Postmaster General’s request to cut Saturday delivery will save $3.5 billion, it’s not nearly enough. Electrification of delivery vehicles is one area that holds promise as it could deliver savings of $219 million per year.

The U.S. Postal Service’s current fleet includes approximately 146,000 delivery vehicles. These right-hand drive delivery vehicles average about 10 miles to the gallon and range in age from 8 to 22 years.

According to an August 2009 report (pdf) from the U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General, “broad use of electric vehicles in the Postal Service delivery fleet would be operationally feasible.”  The report highlighted several elements contributing to the finding:

  • Short delivery routes that average approximately 18 miles a day;
  • Regimented operating hours and centralized base locations allowing for off-peak charging;
  • Stop-and-go driving characteristics, which creates excellent opportunities for regenerative breaking to recapture energy; and
  • High existing fuel expenses.

The report acknowledges that the Postal Service is in the midst of an economic crisis and does not have capital funds to spend on vehicle electrification. Without extensive funding from outside sources, the report concludes that it is not currently economically feasible for the Postal Service to do a broad fleet purchase.

The report did examine the use of vehicle-to-grid revenue (V2G) in addition to outside funding to help offset costs. With V2G, stored battery electricity or capacity can be sold back to grid operators when not needed. The following is a summary of the Inspector General’s financial analysis for several possible scenarios:

  • Postal Service Purchases and Maintains Vehicles, Without Government Funds or Grid Revenue: Payback>10 years; Individual Rate of Return (IRR) = -1%
  • Postal Service Purchases and Maintains Vehicles, Without Government Funds But Generates Grid Revenue Payback = 5.6 years; IRR = 15.4%
  • Postal Service Purchases and Maintains Vehicles with Available DoE Program Grants: Payback = 5.5 years; IRR = 19.9%
  • Postal Service Purchases and Maintains Vehicles with Grid Revenue, and DoE Program Grant: Payback < 2 years; IRR = $63.2

For outside funding, the analysis looked to the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009 as the most likely source. Within the stimulus bill, there are three potential sources of funding:

  • Funding for alternative transportation technologies and fleets;
  • Loan guarantees for investment in battery technology and demonstration; and
  • Grants for development of technology associated with the smart grid.

Several recipients of last week’s smart grid stimulus funding announcement incorporated elements to support vehicle charging including Duke ($200 million), SMUD ($127 million), NV Energy ($138 million), and Madison Gas and Electric Company ($5.5 million), among others. Other V2G funding sources will be made available soon.

Hopefully the Postal Service can take advantage of the funding to help determine whether fleet electrification makes better sense than raising the price of postage (once again).

Laying the Table for Climate Negotiations

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Leading up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, there’s much speculation about the roles that both the United States and China will play on the world stage. China and the US together account for 40 percent of greenhouse gases. The goal of the conference is to reach an international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. It would replace the UN’s Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. Without participation by the world’s two largest CO2 emitters, the treaty is unlikely to succeed.

It appears that the US and China are moving closer together.

On October 22, President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao spoke on the phone and agreed to “strive to have a successful conference.” Both expressed determination to tackle the issue. At a recent US-China clean energy forum, Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said that “the Chinese side is ready to strengthen consultation and communication with all the parties, including the American side.”

This comes just two days before the international Climate Day of Action with citizen participation from over 175 nations. Citizens are joining together to “stand for a safe climate future.” They’re also demonstrating to conference attendees that now is the time to act on climate change. One group of attendees is trying to spread the word itself.

Government leaders from the Republic of the Maldives — the smallest country in Asia and one that sits on average only about 5 feet above sea level — held a special meeting last weekend. President Mohammed Nasheed and 13 cabinet members met 20 feet under water to sign a document calling for all countries to cut carbon emissions. Watch the underwater cabinet meeting in action.

Back in March, President Nasheed pledged that the Maldives would be carbon neutral by 2020. According to an article in the Guardian newspaper, the plan includes new renewable electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, rooftop solar panels, a biomass plant burning coconut husks, and battery banks to provide back-up storage.

Similar to the lone polar bear on a melting ice floe, residents of Malé, the capital of the Maldives, may soon find themselves on the cover of Time Magazine, as climate refugees. Let’s hope that the US and China demonstrate leadership in Copenhagen.

Male, the capital of the Maldives

Malé, the capital of the Maldives

Zero Net Energy Policies

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Similar to many states, California is addressing climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy production and use. The state’s Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (i.e., Assembly Bill 32) established the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. One approach to meeting this climate change goal is by specifying the loading order for electricity resources. In short, that means that the state will meet new electricity needs first with energy efficiency and demand response and second with new generation from renewable energy and distributed generation resources.

Chartwell School

Zero Net Energy Chartwell School located in Seaside, CA

The state’s Air Resources Board calls for energy efficiency measures that would reduce electricity demand by 32,000 GWhs. These measures would in turn reduce CO2 emissions by 19.5 million metric tons by 2020. Energy efficiency measures don’t always mean sitting in a cold, dark house trying to do your part to slow down climate change.

California is examining building and appliance efficiency standards. While the state already has the lowest per capital electricity use in the US, and one that has remained stable for over 30 years, maintaining business as usual is not enough to meet carbon reduction goals.

Increasing efficiency standards for buildings and combining with onsite generation results in newly constructed buildings with the potential for zero net energy by 2020 for residences and 2030 for commercial buildings.

Making zero net energy buildings a reality will require close cooperation among various state agencies, local governments, utilities, and industry players. Similar to other approaches such as waste reduction, California should set clear standards and then help remove obstacles to implementation. Only then will the state achieve its goal of buildings that produce all of their own power.

Additional detail on California’s energy policies can be found in the California Energy Commission’s 2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report (pdf)

Looking Down on Climate Skeptics

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The question posed 20 years ago by scientists at NASA was pretty straight forward:  “Is the current human occupancy and activity of planet Earth sustainable?” The answer was complicated given the lack of data.

The Earth Observing System or EOS was conceived in 1990 as a way to systematically track changes on earth, from the sky.  The first satellite was launched in December 1999.

Scientists already knew that CO2 atmospheric concentrations were increasing. According to a paper written by NASA-funded ecologist Steve Reading, “… CO2 concentrations have been measured carefully since 1957 at Mauna Loa, and the increase has been steady at about 0.3% per year since then, a direct result of fossil fuel combustion.” But was an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations a bad thing?

Until EOS, global biospheric health had been largely unmeasurable, and discussions and policy development had been “handicapped by a paucity of data,” according to Reading.  The purpose of EOS was to provide this factual information on trends of change in our biosphere. Studying the entire “spaceship earth” as a functioning system had never been tried before. Today, NASA has more than a dozen Earth science spacecraft/instruments in orbit studying all aspects of the Earth system (oceans, land, atmosphere, biosphere, cyrosphere), with several more planned for launch in the next few years.

The NASA website provides almost real-time feeds from orbiting instruments documenting sea level, arctic sea ice, carbon dioxide concentrations, global average temperatures, and the ozone hole.

Using information from the Topex/Poseidon Measurement System flying 830 miles above the earth and covering the global oceans every 10 days , NASA scientists are estimating that sea level is rising an average of 3.3 millimeters per year. Sea level rise is associated with the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice (shown below).

The EOS network is providing valuable information to help scientists understand changes in our biosphere. The old axiom that what gets measured, gets managed hopefully applies to our planet.

Switzerland’s Steigletcher Glacier - 1994

Switzerland’s Steigletcher Glacier - 1994

Switzerland’s Steigletcher Glacier - 2004

Switzerland’s Steigletcher Glacier - 2006

Carbon De-Sequestration

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Timelapse – Los Angeles Wildfire from Dan Blank on Vimeo.

Environment Canada estimates that for every acre of primarily coniferous forest burned, approximately 4.81 metric tons of carbon is released into the atmosphere—between 80 percent and 90 percent in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2), with the rest as carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4). (via Slate’s Green Lantern column)